C.11.DUA:5.4 - Earn a long research horizon

A research group has two rival explanations of a recurrent anomaly. Neither currently supports an intervention. Suppose an available instrument and four-week allocation can discriminate a prediction on which the models differ; a much broader survey would exhaust the year’s allocation without separating them.

The receiving use is model discrimination within the year’s research program. Compare the attainable contrast and broader survey against retaining both models and spending the allocation elsewhere.

Completed advice. “Run the four-week discriminating measurement. Under the stated model predictions, its result will eliminate or revise one explanation and inform the next instrument design. The broader survey does not presently distinguish those predictions and consumes the remaining allocation. Reconsider the measurement if instrument sensitivity cannot separate them.”

The useful result sought is explanatory progress and a better basis for later research. No immediate operational intervention is needed to justify that contribution. If the sensitivity condition fails, naming it does not turn the proposed measurement into a useful experiment; revise the design or retain the unresolved models.