C.28.CM:2 - Problem

“Missing information caused the delay” can conceal several accounts. The information may be needed to perform the work. Both the omission and the delay may arise from overload. The recorded omission may describe a logging failure rather than the information actually available. Studying only reported incidents can introduce a further difference.

These accounts can support different responses while fitting the same initial story. Filling a field, changing the generating process, improving registration and temporarily supplying another route are different actions. A model makes their assumptions and consequences inspectable before one narrative becomes the explanation.

A second difficulty arises when a diagram is mistaken for evidence. Drawing a mediator does not establish that the mechanism operated. Leaving out an arrow makes a substantive assumption. A model can be useful for exposing such a premise before it supports an empirical effect claim.