Library / Defense and Transmission Modeling DPF
Jump to passage
In this reading

Link to current text

Published source confirmed at last check

Source changed 2026-10-03 08:25:59 UTC · snapshot created 2026-10-03 08:26:43 UTC · last check 2026-10-03 08:40:10 UTC

DTM.3:5.1 - Equal average readiness can imply different spread

Consider an illustrative readiness x between 0 and 1. Suppose a relevant demonstration occurs once per period and produces the receiving event with probability q(x)=x². This law is a declared hypothesis for the example, not a general law of learning.

In population A every source has readiness 0.5, giving q=0.25. In population B half have readiness 0.1 and half 0.9. Both have mean readiness 0.5, but population B has mean contribution (0.01+0.81)/2=0.41.

A model using only mean readiness would treat both populations identically. If the comparison is about transmitted successful practice, that reduction loses the effect. Preserve the readiness distribution or sufficient classes. If the actual event law were linear and contact opportunities equal, the same particular loss would disappear.

This case also separates evidence obligations. Measurements of readiness do not establish q(x)=x²; that link requires observations of the chosen receiving event.