MA.5:4.4 - Retain the uncertainty that changes action

Use a range, scenarios or a supported probabilistic model according to the question and available evidence. Preserve dependencies between uncertain inputs when independently combining favorable values would create an implausible case.

Inspect the conditions that can change feasibility, a payment block or the useful response. A forecast need not specify every contingency to reveal a decisive capacity threshold. If a material input cannot be estimated adequately, state the conditional conclusion or exact unresolved question.

Represent uncertainty in forecast revenue and receipts at the detail needed for their use. Uncertainty does not by itself prohibit forecasting them; it limits the conclusions a particular forecast can support.