MA.8:4.3 - Put cohort activity on calendar time

For an observable subscription renewal, count the customers eligible for that renewal and those who renew. Divide renewals by that eligible population, using a completed observation window; customers not yet due to renew cannot establish that period’s renewal outcome. Preserve age, channel or other group distinctions where pooling would change the result.

To project a cohort under supplied or supported successive renewal rates, multiply each period’s remaining population by the rate for its next renewal. For example, a 100-customer cohort at 80% and then 70% gives 80 and then 56, not two separate reductions from the original hundred. An existing cohort begins with its current active population and tenure. Applying a new-customer lifetime formula to it would repeat time that has already passed.

Map each cohort’s age to calendar dates before combining accounts. A cohort’s month 1 may be another cohort’s month 4. Put their service demand into the same calendar window, add the demands for each shared resource and only then apply that resource’s supply threshold through MA.1–2. Place acquisition, service payments and receipts at their actual dates, which need not coincide. This obtains a shared resource and cash account without charging the same supply payment once per cohort.

Use an appropriate supplied forecast through MA.5 when behavior needs estimation beyond this account construction. The operation above translates qualified rates into quantities; it does not establish those rates or turn non-purchase into an observed termination.