MDPE.20:3.1 - Name what may change and why the forecast is needed
State:
- the Music-or-Dance practice, variant family, repertoire, performance form, teaching arrangement, event practice, or other changing subject;
- the practitioner population or scene, place, and current period;
- the forecast horizon and relevant scale;
- the characteristic or relation expected to change—for example transformation of material, variant distribution, recognition, participation, reproduction, retention, splitting, hybridization, or loss;
- the deciding Agent and the decision, preparation, or later Work that may use the forecast;
- the Agent’s authority and the separate permissions needed for any proposed intervention; and
- the conditions under which no forecast is worth further effort.
Do not forecast “the future of dance” when the decision concerns whether one school should test two teaching arrangements during the next season. Do not use one local population as though it were every practitioner carrying the same label.