MDPE.20:3.8 - Return the qualified decision and distinguish an empirical update

Return the qualified forecast and its receiving decision on the available basis. Use the observation fields only for an empirical update:

Initial practice, population, horizon, and decision:
Serious rival trajectories and their differing expected observations:
Available evidence or qualified expert-estimate basis, conditions, and uncertainty:
For an empirical update: obtained observation, direct Method or source, source-to-claim relation, uncertainty, and transfer limits:
Trajectory retained, narrowed, rejected, replaced, or added, and why:
Changed or unchanged preparation, intervention, or stop:
Authorized Agent and affected burden when action changes:
Smallest reopen condition:

Retain trajectories that remain useful and not defeated under their conditions. Narrow their population, horizon, representation or mechanism when the evidence supports only a smaller claim. Reject or replace a trajectory when a discriminating result defeats it; add a rival when the basis reveals another mechanism. Preserve the earlier forecast and observation dates and their scope. Their continued applicability depends on the receiving claim and premises, not on replacing an old date with a new one.

One observation seldom identifies a population future. Use the weakest update justified by the evidence. A source from another population can narrow a mechanism claim or change a local probe while remaining too distant to justify a local intervention. A useful result can be qualitative or inconclusive. Its precision comes from specifying the decision, subjects, relations, conditions, evidence, and reopen condition.