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MDPE.20:7 - Consequences

Positive consequences:

  • projects replace one fashionable future story with several testable developments;
  • structural, perceptual, motor, teaching, media, recognition, selection, and retention mechanisms can compete without being collapsed;
  • drift, branching, and no-attractor possibilities remain visible;
  • any new observation or intervention is selected for decision contribution worth its full burden under feasible conditions;
  • expert judgement remains usable with its limits distinguished from population measurement;
  • forecasts can prepare a project for several developments; and
  • direct Music, Dance, research, teaching, event, platform, and engineering Methods govern their respective Work.

Costs and limits:

  • several trajectories require more thought than one extrapolation;
  • observations can be slow, distributed, ethically sensitive, or confounded by the forecast itself;
  • a bounded project rarely measures a whole cultural population;
  • some mechanisms remain observationally hard to distinguish;
  • interventions can move burden or change the practice being studied; and
  • a forecast’s horizon bounds the claim it makes. Extending that claim needs an applicable basis; it does not invariably require fresh evidence. Reconsider the affected use when a relied-on premise changes, a justified review is due or an actual rights, resource or promised-use window ends. An older carrier alone creates no renewal obligation.