ME.18:5.2 - Genuine Escalation: EC-417 Evidence Reconciliation
The EC-417 decision cannot determine whether internal and supplier-originated evidence reconciliation are one account or scoped variants from ordinary records alone. Here the consequential evidence-closure question, available case access and practitioner capacity justify the larger programme and its whole burden. This constructed reconstruction uses a twelve-case development sample plus one held-out case; that count is not an entry rule for other recoveries:
- four firmware-only and four internal harness-plus-firmware releases accepted versioned provisional pinout evidence before safety closure;
- four supplier-originated releases required signed evidence at closure;
- four reconciliation boards were observed;
- CDM probes involved two supplier, two software, one hardware, and one safety practitioner; and
- a thirteenth supplier-originated change was reserved unseen for the held-out discriminator.
| Evidence move | Scenario contribution | Limit retained |
|---|---|---|
| observation and artifacts | overt evidence versions, board records, integration bundles, approval states, and closure results | no population estimate or tacit-cue claim |
| CDM probes | cues, considered options, judgments about provisional versus signed evidence, and counterfactual reflections in critical incidents | retrospective recall and interviewer effects remain |
| event-log analysis | recorded recurrence and deviations in evidence-version, integration, approval, and closure events | log fields do not establish intent or a reusable Method |
| disclosed expert synthesis | twelve-plus-one sample, internal/supplier scope split, contradiction rule, held-out discriminator, and stop | not attributed to CDM or process-mining sources |
Before inspecting the thirteenth case, the team recorded three rival predictions:
| Account or rival | Cues and decision predicted | Variation and result predicted |
|---|---|---|
C-Evidence-Reconcile-Internal applied beyond its observed scope | internally controlled versioned evidence would be the decisive cue; the internal reconciliation role could decide the branch without a distinct supplier approval | supplier origin would not change the branch; closure could proceed from the internal reconciliation result without signed supplier approval |
C-Evidence-Reconcile-Supplier | supplier-owned configuration and restricted geometry would be decisive; supplier responsibility and signed approval would remain required for closure | reversible early integration could occur, but a signed-delta comparison and affected verification would precede either closure or an explicit missing-approval stop |
R-Rig-Capacity-Only | rig unavailability, rather than evidence origin, would trigger the hold and next-slot decision | the same branch would occur for internal and supplier changes and would clear when rig access returned |
The held-out case then showed cues of supplier-owned geometry, restricted provider access, and available rig capacity; the decision allowed reversible early integration but withheld closure pending signed supplier approval; the variation required a signed-delta comparison and one affected verification; and the result was truthful closure after signed approval arrived at D-8. No load-bearing observation surprised the supplier-scoped account. The available rig contradicted the capacity-only rival for this case, and the retained supplier-approval requirement contradicted the internal-account extrapolation.
The resulting disposition is to keep C-Evidence-Reconcile-Internal for the eight internal cases, keep and narrow C-Evidence-Reconcile-Supplier to supplier-owned configuration with the signed-evidence branch, and retain rig availability as a support condition rather than the account that explains this split. The scope split is not decided by majority count. One held-out supplier case leaves transfer to other suppliers, other configuration classes, and missing-approval situations uncertain; neither account is admitted as a Method, and no effectiveness or population claim is made.