ME.19:5.2 - Causal-Use Branch and Non-Causal ME.6 Consumption
The EC-417 release scenario records a cadence/evidence mismatch near several reopenings. Four result identities remain separate:
DA-EC417-CadenceDifferentiation-1is a partial descriptive account: the retained co-occurrences do not fill the dates, variants, and selection history needed for a complete differentiation account;CUR-EC417-CadenceEffect-1is the causal-use support result;DC-EC417-CadenceMismatch-1is a non-causal timing/co-occurrence hypothesis; andAD-EC417-B2-Trial-1is the receiving ME.6 architecture decision.
The causal-use question CUQ-EC417-CadenceEffect-1 asks: “Would entering provisional-evidence reconciliation at D-21, rather than waiting for signed evidence at D-8, reduce mismatch-related reopenings in EC-417-like releases for this team, supplier, and change class?” Its causalUseClaimKind is causalEffectClaim; its target rung is interventionalActionRung.
The actual support-component refs are evidencePathRefs=[EP-EC417-BundleSequence-20, EP-EC417-RigAvailability-20, EP-EC417-QuarterlyCadence-2] and empiricalDataRegimeRefs=[EDR-EC417-NaturalReleaseHistory]. No identification or estimate result exists.
Common threat screen CTS-EC417-CadenceEffect-1 records:
| Threat-screen field | Result |
|---|---|
causalUseQuestionRef | CUQ-EC417-CadenceEffect-1 |
interventionWellDefinedOrConsistency | liveThreat |
temporalOrdering | clear |
exchangeabilityOrConfounding | liveThreat |
positivityOrOverlap | liveThreat |
interferenceOrSpillover | liveThreat |
selectionCensoringOrMissingness | liveThreat |
measurementErrorOrConstructShift | liveThreat |
transportToTarget | liveThreat |
routedThreatRefs | [] |
resultingSupportBoundary | unsupported |
Every live threat lowers the causal-support verdict because no specialist result closes it. The C.28 verdict is unsupported. supportedUse: no interventional causal reliance; use this result only as a stop against that reliance. unsupportedUse: claiming that cadence mismatch caused the reopenings or that B2 will reduce them. The evidence window is the named twenty releases and two earlier cases for this team, supplier, and change class. Reopen only on a governed comparison or replayable identification or bound that varies reconciliation timing while rig, approver capacity, outcome definition, and evidence access are controlled or explicitly modeled.
DC-EC417-CadenceMismatch-1 separately retains only the observed timing/co-occurrence as a trial hypothesis and design constraint. AD-EC417-B2-Trial-1 consumes that non-causal result, capacity, confidentiality, authority, and reversibility to select only a bounded B2 trial. SafetyReviewer-17 performs W-SafetyEvidenceDecision-17 under ASG-SafetyReview-17 and AUTH-SafetyEvidence-17 for the evidence-condition result; ReleaseDecider-17 separately performs W-ReleaseDecision-17 under ASG-ReleaseDecision-17 and AUTH-ReleaseDecision-17 for branch entry and release disposition. The architecture decision does not cite CUR-EC417-CadenceEffect-1 as positive causal evidence.