MMP.13:11 - SoTA-Echoing

Carrying fitting into the required conclusion. Adopt target-specific propagation of joint uncertainty rather than reporting a coefficient table or substituting parameter means. Gelman, Vehtari and McElreath, Statistical Workflow, §§1.3–1.6 and 1.10, author manuscript dated 5 December 2025 for the 2026 article explains how dependencies, derived quantities and calibration affect both Bayesian and non-Bayesian workflows. This changes :4.1 and :4.5–4.6. In :5.1 and :5.3 the extra calculation is small and corrects the actual requested probability or workload target. The source does not rank one inferential philosophy above the other, nor validate a particular subject model. Reopen when another construction gives the same target meaning and uncertainty at lower effort, or when changed dependencies defeat the propagation.

Uncertainty near a parameter boundary. The serious default is the normal standard-error interval, which collapses in :5.1. Adopt binomial tail inversion when its fixed-sample coverage is the requirement; retain a posterior alternative when its prior-conditional probability is wanted. NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook, §7.2.4.1 supplies the explicit comparator and small-sample construction. The few tail calculations cost little here and repair the degenerate result; discreteness can make coverage conservative. A posterior requires the additional prior and can change materially with it. This comparison governs :4.3–4.4 and :5.1, not a universal preference for exact intervals. Reopen for a changed sampling law or a justified approximation that meets the same coverage need more efficiently.

Inference when observations determine stopping. Adapt simultaneous coverage as a conditional alternative to fixed-time intervals in :4.3. Howard et al., Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequences, §1 and equation (1), arXiv:1810.08240v9 supplies the stronger guarantee and its cost in interval width. Its stated stochastic conditions still apply. A fixed-time method remains sufficient for its own observation plan; sequential machinery is unnecessary there. Reopen when the actual stopping rule changes or a narrower valid construction improves the needed inference at comparable effort.