MMP.14:5.2 - Repair the law of the exported records

A candidate latency model assigns (X) uniformly to the integer values 1 through 6. An export contains only values 1, 2 and 3. Comparing these records with unconditional replications of (X) suggests too few large values.

The documented export rule, supplied independently of that discrepancy, retains a record only when (X\le3). The failed comparison omitted selection. Compose the candidate event law with the actual rule: [ P(R=j\mid\mathrm{retained}) =\frac{P(X=j)}{P(X\le3)}=\frac13,\quad j=1,2,3. ] The predicted mean of exported values is 2, not 3.5. Their probability of exceeding 2 is (1/3), not (2/3). Construct comparable replications by applying the same filter, or draw directly from this conditional law. Do not reduce the latent model’s tail merely to make the unfiltered comparison agree.

If the documented export cutoff changes to 4, the corresponding mean becomes 2.5 and the probability of an exported value exceeding 2 becomes (1/2), with no alteration to the candidate uniform latent law. These are recalculated consequences of the changed recording rule, not new empirical confirmation of that law.

Agreement within the retained range does not establish the distribution among unrecorded values. If the target is only the distribution of exported records, that unresolved tail may be irrelevant. If the target needs latent large-latency probabilities, return the missing information or assumption through MMP.12/C.16.IR; the selection correction has not recovered it.