MMP.8.SD:2 - Problem

A record of the present can omit information that changes a later action’s availability or value. A forecast can predict the next reading correctly while omitting an accumulated loss that matters at the end. A plan can also give its future decision maker information that will arrive too late.

These defects can survive accurate computation. Optimizing a model of the latest observation, a guessed hidden state or immediate payoff may return the best answer to a different problem. Conversely, retaining every observation and solving for every possible future can cost more than the decision warrants.

The modeling question is: what information and consequence account make the present choice and its continuation comparable, under the actual conditions of use?