PSD.10:1 - Problem frame

Use this when a point estimate, “high confidence” label, or model output makes a decision look more settled than its evidence permits. Also use it when a long uncertainty list does not say which unknown could reverse, narrow, defer, or invalidate the decision-support return.

Take one relied-on claim and ask: if this claim were different within its supported limits, what would change about these alternatives or their admissibility? State the supported claim and the remaining question together. The gain is a useful uncertainty account, not the impossible removal of all uncertainty.

The governed object is that decision-linked account. A claim about an uncertain consequence, an attributed belief, a model assumption, missing evidence, and a disputed value are different inputs. Their relevance to one decision does not turn them into one probability or a common confidence score.

Do not use this pattern when the only question is a source’s provenance or currentness and no decision-support comparison changes; use A.10 or the direct source practice. If the uncertainty account already supports the present use, reuse it. Direct domain practices retain their own measurement, forecasting, causal, safety, and evidential conclusions.