DTM.2:5.1 - Transmission can reconstruct the practice

Suppose 100 eligible groups face a modeled one-period uptake probability of 0.3. Among their accepted source encounters, 60% carry A and 40% carry B. The accepted flows are therefore 18 and 12.

Assume the recipient retains A after an A encounter with probability 0.9, while a B encounter yields A with probability 0.2. The other outcomes yield B. The receiving flows are:

A: 0.9 × 18 + 0.2 × 12 = 18.6
B: 0.1 × 18 + 0.8 × 12 = 11.4.

These are expected counts, not fractions of a particular person. Thirty uptakes do not mean thirty faithful copies. If accepted encounters favour one source differently, use their composition rather than the source population’s composition.

An intervention that helps more recipients obtain the required tool changes uptake. An intervention that helps recipients preserve a needed operation changes K. They are different proposed effects and need different observations.