DTM.2:5.2 - Reinforcement is a different law

In a constructed three-neighbour case, each neighbour independently provides a relevant endorsement with probability 0.4. If one endorsement is sufficient, the chance of reaching that threshold is 1−0.6³=0.784. If two are required, it is 3×0.4²×0.6+0.4³=0.352.

Both numbers concern the specified endorsement condition, not actual adoption. A recipient may still lack resources or choose not to proceed. Dependence among neighbours invalidates this binomial calculation; three repetitions from one source are not necessarily three independent endorsements.

The useful result is a choice between mechanisms to investigate, rather than adjusting one transmission coefficient until both stories appear to fit.