STR.4:1 - Problem frame

Use this pattern when a strategic choice depends on future conditions that one forecast cannot responsibly settle. Begin with a condition that could change which direction is useful or feasible, then explain a plausible path by which that condition could obtain.

The working result is a small, justified set of future situations for the same strategic question. Each scenario connects assumptions, a causal account and consequences for choice. It helps the practitioner see where a direction works, where it fails and what a materially different future would require.

A scenario describes possible conditions. A forecast makes a predictive claim; a target expresses what someone intends to achieve. Distinguish them before using any of them to support a commitment.

Do not undertake a scenario exercise when a sufficient current comparison or a justified forecast already answers the question. A known constraint can rule out a proposal without any future story. For consequential reliance, obtain the domain evidence and professional judgement needed for the mechanisms and protected limits; an internally coherent story is not evidence that its events will occur.