STR.4:2 - Problem

Several beautifully named futures can imply the same action. Their narrative variety hides the absence of decision-useful diversity. Another set may be different but combine incompatible assumptions, such as unrestricted customer-data reuse and a restriction that makes that reuse unavailable.

A particularly tempting error turns a preferred future into the baseline and treats the others as deviations. The preferred direction then appears resilient because the scenario set was built around its success. Counting scenarios or assigning equal probabilities does not repair the bias.