STR.4:3 - Forces

Scenarios need enough structure to explain consequences without pretending to predict a detailed future. A small set is usable but can miss a shared failure; a larger set can consume the attention needed to make a decision.

Familiar developments deserve consideration even when they lack novelty. Unfamiliar conditions can expose hidden dependencies but require a clear basis for treating them as relevant. The practitioner is balancing consequential coverage, explanatory coherence and effort, not maximizing dramatic difference.